Apparently, just now, you touched the green text underneath one of my article titles. These words are the general subjects under which I file my posts. I hope this organization will make it easier for you to find the articles and links which would be especially interesting.
The children at the school in Indonesia where Barack Obama spent his third grade year celebrate Obama's election as president of the usa. Watch the film.
I've been following current affairs in Canada in recent months, and I am continually impressed at the civility of public discourse up there, and at the quality of the judgement of governing officials. Today Canadians are going to the polls to cast a their vote in their 40th federal election.
I think one important thing is that people do not vote directly for the prime minister, as we vote for our president in the usa. The party with the most members in parliament appoints the prime minister (invariably this will be the leader of that party). The problem is that at election time, federal issues are often an abstraction to people. It's unusual for people to feel like they have "skin in the game" (This 2008 usa election between Obama and McCain is an exception to that). And when there's an abstraction, there is room for a third party (the mass media) to come in and "spin" the issues; in other words, they can create a narrative about things... which plays on people's passions and guides them in how to vote.
We had the same problem with all these investment banks in recent years - AIG, Lehmann Brothers, Bear Stearns, etcetera. The shareholders owned those companies and had ultimate control over their direction. However, all the dealings of those companies were made into abstractions - mathematicians were hired to draw up very complex schemes of risk management. And because of that lack of transparency, the shareholders were at the mercy of whoever wanted to create the narrative about the health of those companies. And the shareholders consequently lost their shirts when the companies went under.
In Canada, people only vote for their representative to the federal parliament. And there really isn't a way for any local publication or television station to make the citizens of that community believe an absurd and offbase narrative about the events in that town or city or county. People are living there day to day, and sure they're curious about the specifics of what's going on, and about causes and effects which pertain to events and trends in their community. But you can't snow them. They see the town in front of them daily, as they go about their lives.
It's interesting that the residents of Washington DC are immune to the spin of the mass media in the usa. They always see things more clearly. Unfortunately, those folks don't even get to appoint a voting member to congress.
This was an amazing thing to see tonight. The focus of canadian politicians is very precise, and very earnest.
This is a wmv film which runs 2 hours
Stéphane Dion is jockeying for the position of prime minister in Canada. He is the leader of the Liberal party. I really have become fond of him, after watching and listening to several interviews with him. He's a francophone, and he doesn't speak english very clearly... but I find that actually quite cute. He's very eloquent in French, he's very smart and has a very nurturing kind of personality. His looks remind me of a childhood comic book hero of mine - Tintin.
These are wmv videos which you can download:
Here's an interview of him at a campaign rally at a soup kitchen
Here he speaks to senior citizens in Toronto
He answers questions from the media in Toronto
Speaks to medical students at Algonquin college
An in-depth interview with him
Check it out. I wish politicians in the usa spoke and acted like this.
The difference between political discourse in Canada and in the usa is like looking at day versus night. Canada is also undergoing an election season, and will be voting in a new government on October 14th. This is the first debate of the party leaders (it is in French with english translation).
For those USAers who are not familiar with Canadian politics, Canada has five political parties. The people around this table tonight are:
Stephen Harper - who is the current leader of the Conservative party, and the current Prime Minister of Canada
Stéphane Dion who is the leader of the Liberal party
Jack Layton - the leader of the New Democratic Party
Elizabeth May - leader of the Green Party
Gilles Duceppe - leader of the Bloc Québécois
Watch the film footage at CTV. This is in segments, and in order to get to each segment in sequence, you might have to touch the "up next" hypertext underneath the video.
Or watch the entirety of the film footage from the CBC by downloading the entire 2 hour video (large wmv)
This problem with the mortgage markets has given me the opportunity to think about how all these things work. According to most sources, the danger facing the country is the lack of money for the commercial paper market - which is where small businesses offer to pay an increased some of money in a day or a week, in return for a smaller amount of money today. From what I have heard - money market funds are the primary source of these short term loans. With all the tumult of late here and there in various markets, one such money market fund "broke the buck" - that is to say that those with money in that fund were sent word that their funds had actually decreased, rather than increased, because of the choices which the fund managers had made. Apparently, this event made other money market fund managers more conservative, and this meant that the pool of money which businesses usually draw on for their daily expenses dried up. This is the thing which folks say could "kill the economy."
But wait a minute here. There's no reason that the commercial paper market couldn't be insulated from the rest of the problems on wall street - for instance, those problems in the mortgage markets. Those businesses which are utilizing this money are happy to support that fund and it's welfare with the usury which they pay. This part of the financial system is healthy, and should remain so.
The mortgage markets, on the other hand, always were an unethical place to invest one's money. There was no transparency. No one who had bought the debt service from the debtors knew about those debtors' situations, and whether the service burdened that person unduly. And predator lenders, in writing up contracts for adjustable rate mortgages, were simply trying to "squeeze blood out of a turnip." Naturally, the home owners would not be able to perform their debt service under those terms... and so the big dreams about all the money that would come from those investments were misguided.
I believe that the solution for all the money investment markets is to create end-to-end transparency. Everyone who purchases the debt service from a debtor, should know enough about that debtor's situation to see whether that person or company is unfairly burdened by her or his commitment, and to see whether the means and the will is there to fulfill the commitment of performing that debt service.
In the short term... I don't see any sense in tossing $700 billion usd at the mortgage markets, if congress is concerned about the commercial paper market. The commercial paper market has the means with which to sustain itself, if those running it get their act together and set things up properly.
The level of public discourse in Canada is quite a bit higher than it is in the usa, when it comes to political issues, and many other topics. Canada is also in an election season, and this is how those hopeful for the office of prime minister are campaigning:
Imagine two friends. One is rich and one is poor. The rich person has enough money to build himself a home, and live a lavish life, but the poor person lives in a rustic shack on the edge of town. The rich person offers to help his poor friend to buy a home... but only on the condition that his poor aquaintance make him even richer than he was already. Does this sound fair?
Now as I begin this discussion, let me start by saying that one important idea of mine is that strictly speaking, money is not wealth. Goods and services are wealth. Money is only a way to obtain wealth. The social contract we all adhere to as a society is that people produce goods and services, and in return receive the medium of exchange - cash. The cash allows people to obtain wealth elsewhere. Ok, now that I have explained that idea... let's go on.
We see that banks violate this code of ethics. They don't produce any good or service which adds to the wealth of the community. The house which is there was either built recently, or it was built decades earlier. The consumer or a former consumer is paying or has paid off the construction costs. The banks do not do that. Imagine being a bank - and you have your institution in the middle of a small town with five thousand homes. Imagine having contracts with 700 home owners in that town. Basically that is a money vacuum. Every thirty years, your institution gets to siphon off the current market price of each of those homes. And most of those homes were built long ago, and the construction costs have already been paid off. You didn't have to do anything - you only had to be independently wealthy to begin with. In other words, your economic status itself gives you an income.
Now, if we can agree that a money lending organization is not producing any tangible good or service - that the company is just able to opportunize, because of the lower economic standing of the borrower - then we can ask ourselves "is there anything to keep that money lender in check?" A person who owns a factory has to produce safe, desirable and useful products. If he is not conscientious, he will go out of business and have to sell his equipment. There is no such safeguard with financial institutions, now is there?
During certain times of history some nations created laws to prevent financial institutions from charging "interest" - or as it was called back then "usury." It was considered unethical and unworkable from an economic standpoint to allow wealthy people to do this kind of thing with their money - loan it out, and collect interest on the debt. I think, that given the financial tumult of this moment of history, we ought to look back into those dusty pages of history, and learn why those civilizations chose to do that. I believe we would find a lot of really important economic principles which they understood back then, and it might do us well to recognize some of them still might be important to consider.
As a person who is accustomed to working minimum wage jobs, I have often thought of the home-owner loans system as something of a scam. A renter ends up giving away a high percentage of her or his income, just to pay off the landlord's mortgage. It feels like indentured servitude. It's a very similar system, when you compare it to the serfs who lived on the noble's land, and had to tithe a portion of their crop in order to keep the right to live in their home.
Over these past few years I saw these subprime loans being handed out and I had mixed feelings about it. I knew it was a foolhardy practice. I thought it was great for people who were usually renters, to be able to pour equity into their own homes instead of giving their landlords equity in the house. Zero down loans, from a human perspective, seem to be ideal. Home ownership is really important for the quality of life in a neighborhood. Home owners care about the curb appeal of their house, where, on the other hand, renters have a vested interest in preventing the house from appreciating in value. I also saw though, that the foolish lending practices were going to get the banks into a bind. I chuckled at the poetic justice which would happen that day.
Now, it's happening... hmmm.
Today, it was fascinating to watch Paulson and Bernanke discussing their own proposed solutions with senators on Cspan. I think it is quite ironic for them to be asking Paulson for his best judgement on what possible solutions would be to the current crisis. Paulson was the CEO of Goldman Sachs between 2001 and 2006. He is one of the rogues who has been driving the economy off the cliff. Certainly governing officials shouldn't be asking his advice for how to piece things back together again. At the end of the meeting a very vociferous member of the public was heard to be yelling about the "fox guarding the henhouse" and "no more corporate welfare." Oddly enough, the incongruity of having Paulson up there seems to be better understood by those involved in the rancorous public outcry about this bailout than by the governing officials themselves.
The one thing that really stood out for me during that panel discussion was the myopic view of the situation which Paulson and Bernanke seemed to have. They are nearsighted to the point that they can't see beyond their own noses. The problem was that unscrupulous mortgage brokers were trying to scam home buyers... with small text in their contracts about the mortgage rate adjusting upward at a certain point. As one of the senators pointed out, the solution to the banks' problems would be to refinance the homes, and provide terms of repayment which were within the means of the home buyers. But somehow Paulson and Bernanke don't care about those who are losing their homes to foreclosures (I believe the statistic which came out in this hearing was 10,000 per day in the usa). Somehow Paulson cannot see that the health of the financial markets goes hand in hand with the financial health of those who are paying off the mortgages. How are they going to get their money back, if they don't take care of those who are going to give it to them? This seems like simple logic, to me.
To me, it seems that Paulson's main goal is to opportunize on this disaster and use it as an chance to consolidate more power in the hands of the executive branch of government. President Bush has famously said "I am the decider." And his administration has quite often used disasters as an excuse to concentrate power in the government, and to move towards more authoritarian types of practices. I suppose one has to forgive Bush for this desire of his, since those in the administration have big heads, and believe that the government goverrns. In point of fact, a government is very peripheral to the events happening in any nation... and only steps in when there is a serious problem that the people want their help with. People are those who, with their actions and daily lives create their own communities.
Barack Obama, the current democratic candidate for president seems to understand better that people in the nation have to pull together to create constructive agendas. Those agendas, or as he said "that change" cannot come from the top down.
I realize that it is an unconventional idea that banks should not charge interest on home loans. But it's not that I'm really suggesting it as a way forward; I'm just musing on other ways that we could do things as a society. Certainly a soviet style centralized government housing system was not a workable solution. But why shouldn't used houses depreciate in value, rather than appreciate? Why should a used house cost as much as a new home? The expense of housing is quite a large one. Could people get together in a community and pool their own moneys and build their houses and community infrastructure in an unconventional way? I read a story awhile back about an Amish family's home which was destroyed in a tornado at 3pm on Monday, and by 2 pm on Tuesday it had been rebuilt because over a hundred Amish people had converged to rebuild it. The only expense for that house was the materials. Imagine if you could own a house and pay off the materials cost in a couple of years, and then live without having to pay rent or a mortgage from then on. Wouldn't that be great? I think most of us would choose that option if we had it, and if the home was in a desirable location.
One of the things which is going to happen here that I see on the horizon, is that as it becomes harder and harder for people to be able to borrow money and get a home... manufacturers will start finding ways to make houses a lot more cheaply. For instance, you might see a sudden interest in this technology which allows a house to be built from bottom to top by a computer.
Well, I wrote up a long ugly page-long essay today about my assessment of how we have come into this mess with the financial markets failing in this september of 2008. I narrated all the facts of the circumstances of the past decade. But history will give our children and our grandchildren plenty of that kind of hard-to-read text. I think I'd rather summarize my ideas in only a few words here on my blog:
How does a great depression happen? When bankers are fools. When politicians are fools, and when there is enough rancor directed at the politicians to distract them to the point that they don't give an earnest ear to those who would advise them in the right course.
I imagine the same thing happened during the 1920s, in the usa.
What is the lesson for us? Choose politicians who have good judgement - who will meet the time of trial with wisdom and earnestness. It's not enough for a politician to look pretty or handsome, or talk smoothly. That person's judgement has to be sound.
Along a timeline this is what happened: the foolish people in the Bush administration failed a test of their judgement on september 11th, 2001. They started panicking and acting in an imprudent fashion... then there was public outcry. That public outcry was met with obstinance. That obstinance closed down the lines of communication into the halls of congress. And those who would advise congress about the dangers facing the financial markets were not listened to. And then the markets melt down.